Differing base rate biasIf you’ve been engaged in any conversations around machine learning and bias, you’ve doubtless seen from ProPublica, which asserts that the COMPAS recidivism prediction model was biased because of the differing composition of its errors: while both black and white prisoners had equal aggregate error rates, the error for black prisoners was likelier to be a false negative (predict recidivism, doesn’t recidivate) whereas the error for white prisoners was likelier to be a false positive (doesn’t predict recidivism, recidivates. However, I’ve often found the discussion space to be a frustrating one, because it contains so many people talking past each other: so many different definitions of bias being implicitly conflated together, so much un-nuanced laying of blame. This post is my attempt at clarification: both for myself, and hopefully for the conversation as a whole. Further research into the accusations of unfairness that ProPublica leveled suggested that this wasn’t as cut and dry as ProPublica suggested, despite the seductively compelling narrative of “naive, privileged techies cause harm”. Calibrated q xd decode crack mac vs pc.

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